A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Florida Panhandle as the Atlantic’s next event takes shape off shore.

As of early Monday morning, a tropical depression was about 110 miles south of Panama City, Florida, with winds of 30 miles per hour, the US National Hurricane Center said in an advisory issued at 11 a.m. in New York. The system will likely strengthen into Tropical Storm Bertha by Monday with winds potentially peaking at 60 mph by Wednesday.

Watches have been posted from Ochlockonee River to the Alabama border, meaning tropical storm conditions may arise in the next two days. Additional watches will likely be posted in coming days.

“Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas should monitor the progress of this system,” John Cangialosi, a senior hurricane specialist at the center wrote in his analysis. “Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast.”

Gulf storms are closely watched by energy markets because even weak systems can cause disruptions to production of natural gas and oil in the resource-rich area. Also, power outages caused by the systems may last for days, disrupting gas processing and oil refining as well as the lives of residents. Bertha would be the second storm of the six-month Atlantic season; last month’s short-lived Tropical Storm Arthur skirted the Texas coast bringing heavy rains to the region.

Along with storm surge and winds, the event is expected to drop as much as 4 inches (10 centimeters) of rain across the Gulf region, with some places getting as much as 8 inches, Cangiolosi said. The storm is likely to turn west along the Gulf Coast later this week and skirt the shoreline before making landfall in Louisiana and then possibly again in Texas.

In a typical year, the second tropical storm usually arrives by July 17, the hurricane center said. An average year produces 14 named systems, including hurricanes, but many forecasters believe 2026 will have fewer because of an El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. El Niños bring more wind shear across the western Atlantic, which tears at the structure of growing tropical systems, often pulling them apart, so overall storm numbers are lower.

Seasonal hurricane forecaster Colorado State University is only calling for nine named storms in its latest outlook. A system is named when its winds reach tropical storm strength of 39 miles per hour.

This year, there’s a 10% chance a major hurricane, with winds of 111 mph or more, striking in the energy-rich Gulf of Mexico, Colorado State said. Normally the odds are 27%.

Copyright 2026 Bloomberg.

Topics Catastrophe Natural Disasters Florida Windstorm