Given the dramatic result, a fair bit of ink has already been spilt trying to understand what happened in the Senedd election on 7 May. One factor that has received limited attention so far however in various post-election analyses is the role that people’s economic circumstances had in their voting choices.

Working with Dr Jac Larner at Cardiff University and YouGov, the Bevan Foundation has drawn inspiration from work undertaken by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation in Scotland to better understand the relationship between economic insecurity and how people vote. Here, we explore some of the implications of Dr Larner’s findings, which you can read in full on our website. 

In our survey, respondents were asked a series of questions about how worried they were about their financial position, how they would manage financially with an unexpected bill of £200 over the next 7 days and about their long-term financial security. The findings are stark.  

Almost half (43%) of Welsh adults are ‘fairly’ or ‘very’ worried about their own and their family’s economic security. Almost half are either ‘not at all’ or ‘not very’ confident that they could cover a £200 unexpected expense in the next seven days (20%) or that if they could cover it, they would face some financial hardship as a result (25%).

While there are economically insecure people across Wales, some groups face a higher risk of being insecure than others.

A key factor that has an impact on someone’s risk of being economically insecure is their age. Economic insecurity peaks in middle age, with the combined impact of debt, housing and job security worries and higher bills. This is linked to the finding that people living in households with children are much more likely to be worried about their economic security than people living in households without children.

Renters, people with no or low levels of savings and disabled people are also more likely to be economically insecure than the general population. But the group with the greatest risk of being financially insecure are people receiving Universal Credit, standing at a staggering two in three (67%).

It should be noted that there are some groups that we have not been able to analyse due to sample sizes not being sufficient. For example, we have not been able to look at the role of ethnicity, despite the likelihood that the risk of being financially insecure is not shared equally among ethnic groups.

The data shows clearly that economic insecurity shapes how people see the world and their voting decisions.

Economic insecurity was a key factor in people’s choice of political party, with those who voted for Plaid Cymru and Reform UK showing the highest levels of economic insecurity. Green party voters also had high levels of economic insecurity. People who voted Labour were more likely to feel secure about their financial circumstances, while Conservative party voters were the most financially secure. Ultimately, people who were economically insecure were voting for change in how Wales is governed.

It’s also clear that too many people across Wales don’t feel that they have a stake in politics. This sense of alienation (or low political efficacy) is particularly acute for people who are economically insecure. Respondents were asked whether they felt that ‘politicians don’t care what people like me think’ and whether they felt that ‘it doesn’t make any difference which party is in power’. Among those who agreed with both statements, 47% were economically insecure compared to just 24% of those who agreed with neither statement.

There are some important differences however when looking at the relationship between economic insecurity and political efficacy. Voters for the two largest parties shared almost identical levels of economic concerns, yet Plaid Cymru and Reform voters diverge significantly on political efficacy. In total, 49% of Plaid Cymru voters reported low levels of voter efficacy, compared to 80% of Reform voters.

It is also interesting to see how economic insecurity shapes people’s attitudes to constitutional questions, with those who support independence being the most economically insecure. All in all, it is clear from their voting preferences that economically insecure people in Wales want to see change from the status quo.

With nearly half the population faced with economic insecurity, getting to grips with the issue should be a priority for all political parties in Wales. Given the findings on how people voted in the election, this is as much a statement of political necessity as it is a moral or economic one. There are three key lessons that emerge from the data about how they could take action on economic insecurity and restore trust that politics can change people’s everyday lives for the better.  

First, it is vital that political parties address the political priorities of people who are economically insecure. The data shows that health and education are near-universal priorities for public spending among voters. But a significantly larger proportion of adults who are economically insecure want more spending on welfare than the average, and are less likely to be supportive of increasing government expenditure on defence. Parties will need to reflect on these differences if they want to maximise their appeal to insecure voters.

Second, any political party that wishes to reduce the proportion of the Welsh population that feels economically insecure must prioritise investment in policy interventions that can achieve this goal. This should be the case even if some of these interventions are not priorities for the majority of the population. For example, increased expenditure on childcare is only a priority for a third of voters. However, given that increasing the provision of funded childcare is one of the most effective tools at the disposal of the Welsh Government to reduce poverty and broader cost of living pressures on families, the new Welsh Government is absolutely correct to make this a priority.

Third, the need to implement policies that reduce economic insecurity is particularly pronounced for Plaid Cymru as the new party of government. Some of the policies outlined by the new Welsh Government, from expanded childcare to the Cynnal child payment pilot to greater investment in social housing, will make a difference to levels of economic insecurity if implemented effectively. If these policies are not implemented in full however, and people’s financial position does not improve, there is a risk that people could become more disaffected, not just with Plaid Cymru but with politics more broadly. As Dr Larner notes in his report:

‘Economic insecurity and political powerlessness form a mutually reinforcing cycle.’

It is vital for the health of Welsh democracy that this cycle is broken. Huge numbers of people in Wales are understandably worried about their futures and want to see change from the new Welsh Government. The onus is on all those who were elected on 7 May to focus on how the decisions they make can improve people’s financial circumstances and restore a sense of hope among people in Wales that political decisions can, and will, improve their lives.

Read the report »