Energy 16 January 2026, 3:26pm

The period of relative calm on the gas market was abruptly ended by a sudden change of direction.

On Friday, the price of natural gas began to rise sharply, jumping 10% today alone — the largest increase in recent months.

Since the beginning of December, European natural gas has risen in price by €10.

The primary driver of the price increase is meteorology. According to forecasts, Europe (among other places) is set to be hit by another major, prolonged cold spell originating in Siberia next week. Not only will this drastically increase demand for residential heating, but the cold weather combined with calm, cloudy conditions may also cause a decline in renewable energy production. This will force gas-fired power plants to make up for the capacity shortfall.

Reserves are running low. European gas storage facilities were already below average at the start of the season compared to previous years, but the extreme cold weather at the beginning of the year and the current cold snap are putting the system under considerable strain. Market players are closely monitoring withdrawal data, as if the freezing weather continues over the next few weeks, stocks could fall to a level that would cause prices to rise during the spring refilling period.

Technical factors may also be behind the 10% increase, as many traders were forced to close previous positions that had been made on the expectation of a price decline (short covering), which only served to further fuel the rise.

Cover image (for illustration purposes only): Getty Images