It's a city of jazz, beignets and looming flooding issues. Even if tourists flock to this southern city for its culture, scientists warn that the future of New Orleans could be more risky than many residents and prospective homeowners realize. A new scientific paper published in the Nature Sustainability Journal found that while locals are generally staying put in New Orleans, there's a chance their homes may not exist in a few decades. Looking at an ancient shoreline from around 125,000 years ago, a time when temperatures were similar to those expected in coming decades, researchers say southern Louisiana may already be headed for dangerous living conditions. According to researchers, New Orleans will lose 75 percent of its remaining wetlands by 2070. This means that the city could essentially become an island in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the century. Whole chunks of Louisiana are in a 'low-elevation coastal zone' that faces new dangers as sea levels rise. These changes could impact thousands of locals. According to Realtor.com, 'New Orleans is currently home to roughly 144,000 households that would need to be moved were the relocation to begin today.'

But population decline in the area has already begun. While locals in New Orleans and the surrounding Louisiana area cling onto their roots, potential homebuyers are generally looking elsewhere. Houma, a Cajun city about an hour southwest of New Orleans and known as the gateway to Louisiana's bayou country, is forecast to see home prices fall 7 percent. Lake Charles, the Gulf Coast casino and energy hub still marked by years of hurricane damage and rebuilding, is forecast to drop 5.6 percent.

The paper added that Florida, an area also frequently impacted by flooding and hurricanes, has seen population growth in recent years, posing as a direct contrast to Louisiana. The reason behind this, they explained, is the cultural differences. Wealthy residents from high-tax areas like California and New York flock to Florida for the low cost of living and work opportunities in hotspots like Miami. There are lower taxes and generally less regulation, making it one of the most sought after areas for newcomers despite climate change fears.

Meanwhile, many Louisianans stayed put in vulnerable areas even when there are economic or environmental reasons to leave, because they feel 'deep place-based cultural values' in their communities, families and history. Real estate expert Ryan Bordenave, who owns three multifamily homes in New Orleans, says locals are aware of the wetland loss but 'are honestly not thinking about' its long-term impact. 'There's an underlying notion that living in Southeast Louisiana may come with some risks related to storms and flooding,' Bordenave told the Daily Mail, 'but for the love of the culture and community, it does not deter interested parties in investing here.'

And despite the population losses in recent decades, the study adds that coastal Louisiana residents are not immediately thinking about moving in response to environmental challenges. Instead, many are opting to adapt 'in place' through home elevation, flood-proofing, insurance and lifestyle modifications to live in a wet environment. Bordenave himself has been involved in the renovation and redevelopment of several historic New Orleans properties. 'With a dynamic new Mayor, Helena Moreno, and new city council that has taken over New Orleans since the beginning of this year, the momentum is very high for New Orleans right now,' he added, saying that his work in commercial real estate has 'increased' this year especially. And tourists can't get enough of the jazz hub, either. 

Last year, the city's tourism neared a record set before the pandemic - about 19.5 million visitors and $10.8 billion in spending. A large chunk of those visitors descend on the city during Mardi Gras, a celebration to mark the start of Lent with over-the-top parades and celebrations. According to New Orleans' website, tourism is one of the largest industries in the area, accounting for over 85,000 jobs. 'When we create a more functional city, it’s going to keep our residents living in the city of New Orleans and it’s going to make sure that our visitors keep coming back,' Moreno said.