Increasing ICE certified stocks on improved supply from Brazil may cap prices
Harvest of arabicas, the milder and premium coffee beans, has started in parts of Karnataka, the key producing region a bit early this year due to erratic weather conditions. Less rains and more sunshine have led to early ripening of the beans, prompting growers to take up early harvest for the 2026-27 crop starting October.
“The arabica harvest has started in some parts of Kodagu. The harvest is a bit early in the low-lying areas as there are no rains and lot of heat leading to early ripening. I think around October 20 the harvest will be in full swing. Robusta harvest will start around mid-December,” said MC Kariappa, Vice-Chairman of Karnataka Planters Association (KPA).
Kariappa said the arabica crop is likely to be lower this year compared to last year, while robusta will be similar to last year.
The Coffee Board, in its post-blossom estimates, has projected the arabica crop at 84,015 tonnes in Karnataka for 2026-27, up from 79,145 tonnes in the previous year. Robusta crop in Karnataka is projected at 1.95 lakh tonnes from previous year’s final estimate of 1.77 lakh tonnes.
Blossom estimatesOverall Indian arabica output, as per blossom estimates, is projected at 1.20 lakh tonnes for 2026-27, up from last year’s 1.11 lakh tonnes. Robusta output is set to rise to 2.84 lakh tonnes as per post blossom estimates, up from 2.62 lakh tonnes. Total coffee output is projected at 4.04 lakh tonnes, up from final output of 3.73 lakh tonnes during 2025-26.
H T Mohankumar, former President of Karnataka Growers Federation, said the arabica harvest is a bit early this year and that picking of beans has started in parts of Chikkamagaluru and that growers are keen to produce more of parchment for better realisations.
Praveen Kolimarla of Agrani Coffee and Commodities said the harvest always starts early in the low lying areas and this year due to less rains and sunny weather, the harvest can be expedited.
“Peak harvest will be in November and December. Arabica coffee will be available for exports from December onwards. So it is well within normal, maybe slightly early,” he said adding that about 80 per cent of the arabica coffee in India is parchment (washed coffee).
Further, Kolimarla said that with Brazil increasing the shipments, the certified stocks are on the rise.
Stocks rise“The arabica certified stocks have started to increase. In one week, it went up by about 20 per cent, but from a low base. It is still significant and hence the Arabica market is looking down,” Kolimarla said.
Prices of arabica on ICE were trending lower at $2.74 per pound, a monthly decline of about 18 per cent, on improving global supply and more favourable prospects for Brazil’s next year crop.
ICE certified arabica stocks increased to 2,54,480 bags (60 kg) as on September 23, up from a 27-year low of 217646 bags as on September 15 with improving supplies from Brazil.
In India, the raw coffee prices of arabica parchment were hovering around ₹23,500-₹24,600 per 50 kg bag, whereas Arabica cherry prices were in the range of ₹13,000-₹14,500 levels.
Published on September 24, 2026
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